🔗 Share this article

Amid the considerable disarray surrounding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the seizure of President Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “run” the country and “seize control of the oil”, a single fact remains evident – these actions create a deeply alarming precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States carries a troubling legacy of interference, invasion and occupation in the region, but the early hours of Saturday witnessed its initial significant armed assault on South American land. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” Trump proclaimed.

The move to assault another sovereign country and capture its head of state – only a few days after he stated a desire for negotiations – carries even broader implications. It should alarm us all.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have stolen the last election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has remarked that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and rejected prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other elements of the decapitated regime are far more intransigent.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who won power pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He does not see the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is converting it into a renegade nation.

He holds the view that the US’s might enables it to do as it wishes with little consequence: witness the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He promises that the oil resources of Venezuela means this most recent venture “won’t cost us a penny”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came absent any United Nations mandate or authorization from lawmakers; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to shatter them.

Disregard the message this sends to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will surely embolden further adventurism.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

No one buys the justification that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is propelled by the allure of petroleum resources as well as personal bravado, the worldview of key officials, and the appetite for triumphalism as his support at home declines.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode emphasizes the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could yet press him to turn attention back home – but soaring healthcare premiums, financial discontent and distracting files fuel his desire for external drama.

We are not yet 12 months into his time in office. Other governments may regret it if they stay silent now, considering the potential next target.