Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
