Keir Starmer's Allies Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback
Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a coordinated campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to the House of Commons. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming byelection.
Serious Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Procedure
Multiple members on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour hierarchy reportedly swung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he caused consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially stand for the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would only return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
A number of sources also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to launch a strong campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.
The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an offensive online group.
