Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
